A-Share: 2,700-Point Plunge

Today, the A-share market broke through the 2,700 point level during the trading session.

However, with the support of stabilizing funds, the market rebounded after breaking through at noon and stabilized at the 2,700 point level at the close.

It is evident that, given the current market conditions, although the market can temporarily lift the weighty sectors to regain the 2,700 point level during a stock market downturn, it is difficult to boost the sentiment within the market.

After the close, more than 3,600 stocks declined, with only 32 stocks hitting the upper limit.

There was a contrast between large and small caps, with large-cap stocks rising by 0.4% and small-cap stocks falling by 0.3%.

So, what are the reasons for the market's plunge to 2,700 points today?

There are only two reasons.

The first reason is that the market is still in a situation where stabilizing funds are lifting the index, but there are no new funds entering the market.

This led to the market breaking through the 2,700 point level at noon today, with trading volume continuing to shrink.

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During the holidays, there were no significant positive news that could boost sentiment in the A-share market, leading to continued index adjustments based on inertia.

After a short-term lift by stabilizing funds, the trend will still be weak.

Moreover, after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the National Day holiday is approaching, and with a longer break, the A-share market will be closed for five trading days.

It is clear that during the third-quarter decline of the stock market, the willingness of new funds to enter the market will continue to decrease in the near term.

From this, we can deduce two pieces of information: 1) Today, the market broke through the 2,700 point level, lifting the index, but individual stocks are still generally falling, and trading volume has once again broken through 50 billion yuan after the close.

A short-term lift is hard to change the weakening trend.

2) After the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the National Day holiday is coming, and there are significant news announcements in the periphery this week, all of which affect the trend of A-shares.

The second reason is that today, due to the Hong Kong stock market being closed, Northbound capital has suspended trading.

The most recent instance was during a typhoon day when the Hong Kong stock market was closed for a day, and the stock market experienced a significant decline.

Today, the adjustment pattern has played out again, indicating that if foreign capital withdraws funds, it will accelerate the adjustment of the stock market.

Once foreign capital suspends trading, the stock market will also be in an adjustment state, undoubtedly indicating that the current atmosphere of A-shares is dominated by the sentiment of both domestic and foreign capital being bearish.

So, if the three major indices rebounded at noon and lifted the weighty sectors, and the market is merely supported by stabilizing funds to hold the index without rising, such a pattern of supporting the index without rising will hardly provide substantial help for the stock market to stabilize and strengthen.

After all, A-shares need real money, and the market has been falling through key levels, from 2,900 points, then 2,800 points, and now at 2,700 points.

As this becomes commonplace, the existing funds are also tired of dealing with it, making it even harder to attract new funds to enter.

Based on the above two reasons, Xiao Jin predicts that there might be surprises in tomorrow's trend?

If the market does not see a significant increase in volume or receive more favorable news, A-shares have temporarily supported the 2,700 point level today, and there is no exclusion that the trend may have surprises tomorrow and break through the 2,700 point level again.

However, today's trading volume has shrunk to 474 billion yuan, which means that during the recent decline of A-shares, the turning point will also come during the stage of reduced volume.

Currently, the market needs to meet two conditions to hope for a turning point in the trend: 1) Significant positive news arrives, mainly to boost market sentiment.

2) The stock market shows a significant increase with a medium-sized Yang line, indicating that funds from outside the market are entering.

Otherwise, the short-term trend will still be waiting for the conditions to be met.

If both conditions are hard to meet, the market needs to stop falling, unless the stock market's volume shrinks to a historical low area, and the trend is expected to usher in a process of over-sold rebound.

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